Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 1.698182 1.789793 1.885272 1.992493 2.109894 2.234924 2.378665
2025-10-19 1.577561 1.706871 1.847575 2.013110 2.203923 2.418709 2.681273
2025-10-26 1.483103 1.632728 1.800306 2.003889 2.247311 2.532735 2.898476
2025-11-02 1.410565 1.573900 1.761022 1.994268 2.281657 2.630425 3.096024
2025-11-09 1.345211 1.517256 1.717994 1.973560 2.296479 2.700099 3.258745
2025-11-16 1.288300 1.466328 1.677297 1.950820 2.304123 2.757498 3.406082
2025-11-23 1.250407 1.435665 1.658518 1.952640 2.340956 2.852714 3.610326
2025-11-30 1.222924 1.415842 1.651273 1.967421 2.393928 2.971278 3.856687
2025-12-07 1.180792 1.375573 1.615856 1.942781 2.391202 3.011043 3.988775
2025-12-14 1.138907 1.333784 1.576407 1.910258 2.374828 3.028929 4.087116
2025-12-21 1.101832 1.296649 1.541270 1.881431 2.361253 3.048801 4.188725
2025-12-28 1.085975 1.286003 1.539945 1.897946 2.412048 3.166218 4.459132
2026-01-04 1.073411 1.279464 1.544098 1.922643 2.476805 3.310880 4.795390
2026-01-11 1.059741 1.270876 1.544982 1.942504 2.535247 3.449950 5.140030
2026-01-18 1.036589 1.248834 1.526646 1.933801 2.549602 3.518701 5.363930
2026-01-25 1.014747 1.227782 1.508780 1.924715 2.562392 3.585116 5.591075
2026-02-01 0.990548 1.202801 1.484572 1.905155 2.557427 3.620725 5.761129
2026-02-08 0.967001 1.178031 1.459823 1.883667 2.548016 3.647558 5.916096
2026-02-15 0.952405 1.165009 1.451009 1.885388 2.575579 3.740587 6.223728
2026-02-22 0.942528 1.158112 1.450485 1.899355 2.623511 3.873429 6.640238
2026-03-01 0.921350 1.135038 1.426213 1.876069 2.608358 3.889258 6.790739
2026-03-08 0.898767 1.109508 1.397749 1.845318 2.579158 3.876691 6.872016
2026-03-15 0.878177 1.086324 1.372085 1.818047 2.554575 3.871168 6.970137